2016 China's economic development view
As the first year of the thirteen five year plan, 2016 will be a year for China's economy to continue to explore.
In 2016, the world economy was hard to shake off the impact of the 2015 downturn. The increase of China's import demand, the normalization of US monetary policy, the continuous decline of international bulk commodities and the manifestation of deep-seated problems caused by the global manufacturing early stage mismatch all decide that the emerging economies in 2016 are facing unprecedented turbulence. In addition, the ultra - expected impact of geopolitics could lead to the premature death of the European economic recovery.
Global investment contraction and trade contraction are continuing. The world's macro economy lacks unified macroeconomic policy coordination, growth base of economic rebound and basic support for medium-term prosperity. The transmission rule of the world crisis determines that the transmission of the current crisis from finance to entity, from center to periphery is still continuing, and the adjustment of the balance sheet of emerging economies is just beginning. Therefore, the world economy is not only faced with the overall downturn, but also the possibility of "two exploration". This determines that China's economy will not only face the sustained impact of world trade contraction, but also the impact of global capital movement. It is difficult for China's economy to achieve a successful reversal of the cycle before the world's economic bottom.
In the process of continuous exploration of China's economy, on the one hand, many micro indicators may be mutated. On the other hand, a lot of macroeconomic indicators will fall further, making the depth and duration of economic exploration more than expected.
The bottom of the Chinese economy is the product of the joint force of a variety of periodic forces. Whether the world economy will be two dip in 2016? Whether the real estate investment will be successfully reversed in the two quarter of next year? Whether a debt restructuring can alleviate corporate debt pressure? The stock adjustment will be able to start a large-scale incremental expansion? Whether enough to compensate for the unbalance and reversal of traditional stock adjustment caused by the gap? Macroeconomic policy reorientation is effective change the micro subject of the pessimistic expectations, and effectively resolve the "debt deflation effect" to fully manifest? Whether the dynamic mechanism of a new round of reform and adjust the incentive compatibility effectively construct? These factors will determine the current round of economic downturn at the bottom and the bottom downward depth and length.
Incremental adjustment has been carried out in recent years and achieved remarkable results. But the cultivation of new industries, new formats and new power needs a longer cycle, which is difficult to fill the gap of traditional transformation in the near future. The incremental adjustment in 2016, on the one hand, is faced with the constraints of government expenditure, on the other hand, it is also faced with the risk of excessive support.
The debt cycle is the most direct force in determining the current round of China's economic cycle. The 6-7 month's stock market volatility in 2015 accelerated the rise of China's debt rate. In 2016, the overall restart of China's IPO, the accelerated replacement of local debt and the divestiture and disposal of non-performing assets will directly determine the operation of the debt cycle. The debt situation is not broken, and the benign mechanism of high speed in the macro economy is difficult to appear.
High inventory and excessive lead Chinese regional differentiation of real estate cycle adjustment than ever before long, and there is a risk of premature recovery, full recovery of real estate in 2016 is expected to have a strong uncertainty, but the stock of real estate inventory policies forthcoming will greatly reduce the uncertainty, and the realization of the real estate investment growth in advance the reverse. The decline in the growth rate of real estate investment is irreversible, and the short-term economic stability is difficult to achieve.
Chinese economic stock adjustment has not been substantial expansion, industry overcapacity overcapacity not completely withdraw, as all the zombie companies funding black hole is still widespread, high debt of state-owned enterprises is still the focal point of various funds invested in the snowball effect. Therefore, the supply side stock adjustment policy, which is fully launched in 2016, will determine the bottom and rebound point of the stock operation. The bottom of the stock economy will not come, and the bottom of the overall economy will not come.
In addition, whether the reorientation of the great reform in 2016 and the big adjustment can build a new dynamic mechanism of incentive compatibility is the key to achieve the bottom up rebound of China's macro-economy.
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