A year on the year of 2015 engineering machinery
In 2015, the construction machinery faced a great crisis, although it was not as good as the steel industry to survive, but it was also a bitter struggle. In 2016, the construction machinery was restored to vitality, although it was only tiny, but it was also a good seedling.
A faint hope
In 2015 1~11 month, the cumulative growth rate of the value added of machinery industry increased by 5.3% compared with the same period last year, rising by 0.1 percentage points compared with that of 1~10, which is still 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the national industry.
119 kinds of main products in the machine in conjunction with focus on monitoring, the number of varieties of products in the month of November year-on-year growth of 44, higher than the lowest August annual increase of 18. The number of products decreased in 1~11 months was 2 less than in October. The output of large horsepower tractors, over 4 rows of corn combine harvesters, large self propelled plant protection machinery, green feed machinery, drying machines, wind turbines, optical cables, motor sports utility vehicles (SUV) and other products still keeps increasing.
Since 2015, the main performance indicators of the machinery industry have continued to decline in the previous year. In the first 10 months, the main business income of the machinery industry increased by 3% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate is relatively low in the same period since 2008. The total profit is 1 trillion and 210 billion 235 million yuan, and the growth rate is 12.07 percentage points lower than the same period last year (13.25%). From the quarterly growth rate, the growth of machinery industry profit increased by 1.29 percentage points in the two quarter compared with the first quarter, and the three quarter was 1.85 percentage points lower than the two quarter.
1~10 month, the profit rate of machinery industry was 6.57%, down 0.12% compared with the same period last year. The total assets contribution rate was 12.95%, which decreased by 0.67% compared with the same period last year. The rate of capital maintenance and increment is 109.84%. The turnover rate of current assets is 1.97 times, a decrease of 0.05 times compared with the same period last year, and the cost and profit rate 7.04%, decreasing by 0.16% compared with the same period last year.
Export as fellow sufferers
As the world economy has entered the stage of deep adjustment, the global demand has declined significantly, and the mechanical industry has also slowed down a downward trend. In 2015 1~10, the total import and export volume of machinery industry was 552 billion 288 million US dollars, down 7.71% compared to the same period last year, of which 229 billion 671 million US dollars, which fell 14.47% compared with the same period last year, and the decline continued to deepen. Exports were 322 billion 617 million US dollars, down 2.2% compared with the same period last year, and export has seen a slight decrease since 2009.
In 1~10 months, the import growth rate of the 12 industries of machinery industry decreased year by year compared with that of 1~9 months. The industry with faster growth rate of imports was followed by agricultural machinery, petrochemical general and cultural office equipment industry. The decline was 2.29, 1.98 and 1.01 percentage points higher than that in 1~9 months. In October, the fastest growth rate of imports in September than in September is the agricultural machinery industry. The decline has increased by 18.47 percentage points, followed by the general industry of automobile and petrochemical industry. The decline has increased by 14.7 and 12.46 percentage points respectively.
From the main export market, exports to Asia is the main market, 1~10 month exports to Asia the proportion of total industry 48.42%, up 48.23% over the same period last year; exports to Europe accounted for 17.58%, down 18.87% over the same period last year; of North American exports accounted for 18.51%, down 17.53% over the same period last year.
A slower rate of growth
The cumulative price of machinery industry products decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period in 1~11 months, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in 1~10 months. The cumulative price of machinery industry has declined for 47 consecutive months. In November, the price of mechanical products fell by 1.6% in the month of November, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in October; the price of October fell by 0.2% in the month of October.
Compared with the national industry, the price of the machinery industry is running smoothly. In recent years, the price drop of the machinery industry is lower than that of the national industrial decline. In the 1~11 month of 2015, the cumulative price of the machinery industry was 3.9 percentage points lower than that of the national industry.
The number of products falling from the year on year of the machinery industry has continued to rise. In 1~11 months, the total price of the 142 main machinery products decreased 21 over the same period last year, while the cumulative price increased by 29 over the same period last year.
The downward trend of fixed assets investment has improved
1~11 machinery industry investment in fixed assets totaled 4 trillion and 503 billion 302 million yuan, an increase of 9.75%, 0.48 percentage points higher than the previous 10 months; but still lower than the same period the total social fixed assets investment (10.2%) 0.45 percentage points, the growth rate of investment in machinery industry with the same period last year (12.4%), down 2.65 percentage points.
11 months ago, in different holding enterprises, accounting for up to 77.75% of the private holding enterprises investment growth of 10.74%, up 0.64 percentage points higher than 1~10 months; in different subordinate relationship, the central and local investment grew by 24.78% and 9.46% respectively, the central investment growth rate down 3.76 percentage points over 1~ in October, local projects investment growth accelerated 0.55 percentage points; in the different nature of construction, construction and expansion of investment growth rate than 1~10 months to speed up 0.07 and 2.83 percentage points, reconstruction and technical transformation investment growth rate down 0.71 percentage points. From a specific perspective, the proportion of investment in 1~11 month renovation and technological transformation to the whole industry is 27.51%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year (25.01%), and the investment in machinery industry has increased by 5.18 percentage points.
The change of investment structure shows that the machinery industry is constantly adjusting the way of growth to adapt to the change of new normal development, and investment begins to transform from large-scale extension to intensive development.
Prediction of the trend of machinery industry
Under the new normal situation of China's economic development, looking at the internal and external environment of the machinery industry in 2015 and the economic operation of the industry, we can see that industry development is both opportunities and challenges. Specifically speaking, its favorable factors are mainly three: first, the positive orientation of macroeconomic policy; the two is the growth trend of private enterprises; the three is the slowdown of some indicators. The main adverse factors are two: one is that the downward pressure is still larger, and the two is that the uncertain factors in the macro environment are still more.
From the favorable factors, the state has issued a series of policies and measures to steady growth, adjusting structure, promoting reform, energy and raw material supply more relaxed, conducive to cost control and improve the efficiency of machinery industry; at the same time, the country also introduced a number of policies to encourage innovation, especially the "2025" China manufacturing introduction will accelerate the pace of development of the machinery industry.
From the adverse factors, since 2015, the mechanical enterprises generally feel that the market demand is insufficient, the orders are reduced, the price continues to fall, and the benefit has fallen sharply. The weakness of market demand is likely to improve in the short term. The downward pressure on the economy is still large, and there are many difficulties. In addition, the machinery industry is an industry dominated by investment products. Under the environment of low investment demand, the market demand recovery of machinery industry is still weak, and the foundation for recovery is still not stable.
From the perspective of the operation of the industry, the machinery industry increased sharply in the first quarter of 2015. The situation is grim than expected. The downward trend slowed down in the two quarter and showed signs of recovery in June, and there still fluctuated in the three quarter. In a comprehensive analysis, although the four quarter is expected to be warmer, the annual growth rate will still be lower than the previous year. The specific indicators are as follows: in 2015, the main business revenue is expected to grow more than 3% in the whole year, and the profit will increase by more than 1%. The import and export of foreign trade will be impacted by the continuous decline of imports. The trade surplus will exceed 100 billion US dollars throughout the year. Although it is difficult to be optimistic in 2016, it is expected that the machinery industry will still achieve a small positive growth and will keep pace with the development of the national economy. However, the real challenge and long-term future still lie in whether the structural adjustment and upgrading can be actively promoted.
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