Analysis of why mechanical industrial growth is lower than manufacturing and equipment industry       

In the first 2 months of this year, the cumulative growth rate of the machinery industry increased by 6.8%, which is not only 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period, but also 1.4 percentage points lower than that of the equipment manufacturing industry. This is a phenomenon that is rarely seen in recent years, "not higher than the national industry, at the same time lower than manufacturing and equipment manufacturing." How to create this rare phenomenon and how to deal with this situation?

In this regard, in the first quarter of CMIF Expert Committee held economic operation analysis, China Machinery Industry Federation special adviser Cai Weici said that the overall situation is grim, mainly from the macro economic environment has not fundamentally improved, especially the investment and consumption demand has not been improved. At the same time, the industry's own overcapacity has exacerbated this dilemma. In addition, the growth curve of high and low post industry last year has led to a more obvious decline in this year.

The opening of the sluggish price index is hard to say

Cai Weici summed up the performance of the first quarter of the machinery industry into three types. Among them, automobiles, instruments and meters, basic parts and internal combustion engines are slightly higher than the average number of industrial growth; electrician, petro chemical and other industry average growth figures are equal; heavy duty, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, machine tools and so on will be slightly lower than the average. From the specific data, in the Statistics Bureau of the 49 sectors of the industry, this year, the growth rate of 1~2 months has fallen 30.

Due to the shortage of demand, the market competition of mechanical products is more intense. The overall price level has continued to decline for the past year. The cumulative price index lasted for 38 months under 100%. According to the price index of the 142 main products in the machinery industry, the price index is higher than 100%, and the variety is decreasing. The variety below 100% is still increasing, and the price index is still not optimistic.

Cai Weici said that there are many factors that are not comparable at the beginning of the year. According to the analysis and judgement, entering the March, especially in the two quarter, the growth rate of the machinery industry will be higher than that of 1~2 month.

From the internal combustion engine industry, in February, the internal combustion engine sales were 3 million 770 thousand, the ring ratio decreased by 27%, and the year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. Among them, the gasoline engine market strong growth momentum, the passenger car market is still the leader of the internal combustion engine market, small machine market good start. The decline of diesel engine market is obvious, and the decline of some enterprises has reached more than 20%. Each subdivision market with diesel engine has been declining in varying degrees.

The internal combustion engine industry association official said at the meeting last year, through the import and export data analysis, although China internal combustion engine industry overall trade surplus situation, but calculated that import product price is much higher than the price of export products, nearly 10 times, which shows that although the large amount of export products, but the general technical content, low price, to achieve the industrial upgrading, improve the brand premium is the problem to be solved.

Accounts receivable increase the financial pressure of the enterprise

I learned at the meeting that, in the first two months of this year, the biggest difficulty for machinery enterprises is still that the financial pressure is not decreasing. Accounts receivable increased and market demand remained depressed.

From the view of the general machinery industry, 1~2, general machinery industry statistics six main products, pump, compressor, gas separation and liquefaction equipment and reducer increased year by year, fan and valve decreased year by year. The added value of pumps, compressors and valves increased by 5.5% over the first two months, and the value added of wind turbines increased by 7.6% compared with the same period last year. The value added of other general machinery industries increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year.

General machinery industry association responsible person said, at present, the general machinery industry has more and more enterprises have gradually adapted to the new normal of China's economy, but high accounts receivable is still a prominent problem facing the development of the industry. Among them, some users postpone the receipt of the goods, or refuse to pay in all kinds of improper reasons. At the same time, the price war is becoming more and more intense. Some enterprises scramble for the market, regardless of cost, profit or even no profit to undertake the order, some of them disrupted the market at the expense of product quality. The Association recommended by industry associations to develop product market guidance, and formulate corresponding rules, standardize the market.

From the view of heavy machinery industry, the total output value of 1~2 month fell 9.6%, the output value of industrial sales dropped by 3.88% and the quantity of order decreased by 19.35%. The operation situation of the heavy machinery enterprises is different and the advantages and disadvantages of the enterprises are good and bad, the advantageous enterprise order situation is good, the inferior enterprise shuffle serious. The demand for the market is insufficient, and the new orders are declining, and the distribution is uneven.

Since this year, the new order price of the heavy machine industry continues to remain low, and the price of some traditional products is still falling. Although the purchase price of raw materials and accessories has also declined, it is not enough to make up for the impact of price decline on profits, and the pressure of enterprise benefit is still large.

The person in charge of the heavy machinery industry association said that the shortage of funds in the industry is still an important issue. In the current economic environment, the enterprise funds are all tense, the return of money is more difficult, and the cash account of the return is reduced. Some users asked to postpone delivery, complete sets of large-scale project loaning and other factors have caused the enterprise capital turnover is slow, further increase the enterprise operating costs and operating risk.

For the heavy machine industry trend forecast, Association believes that the current domestic downtown pressure on the economy is still not released, but a new round of energy saving and emission reduction, quality and efficiency as the focus of development has been brewing in the affected market shrinking, machinery industry for three consecutive years showed a tightening trend, considering the heavy machinery industry is expected to delay time. This heavy machine industry basic situation is difficult to have a significant improvement, compared with last year expected growth rate will decline 1~2 percentage points.

From the view of the engineering machinery industry, the sales of the main products of the construction machinery continued to decline in the first two months of this year. The market demand was disadvantaged and the rising power was insufficient. The sales volume of the 9 main engines has been greatly reduced. LED products are mainly excavators, loaders, bulldozers, cranes. The decline in March is expected to continue.

The responsible person of Construction Machinery Industry Association said that, from the survey, it still continued to decline in last year's revenue and increase in expenses, and increased receivables, difficulties in capital turnover and declining profits. In the past, the decline in operating income has increased, and the increase in financial and interest expenses has increased, and the decline of profits continues to expand.

The Association estimates that the market for engineering machinery in the first half of the year will still be significantly lower than last year. It is expected that there will be no significant decline in the whole year, or will be flat or slightly increased with last year.

Cai Weici expects the mechanical industry to slow down in the two quarter and may also recover. In view of the gradual effect of the country's steady growth measures and the industry's own resilience to the crisis, the industry is expected to recover steadily after March. The annual growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry will still be around 8%, the growth of the main business income is 8%, the profit rate is about 10%, and the export income is 6%.

In general, under the external macro regulation and the efforts of enterprises, the machinery industry needs to actively explore new opportunities and seize opportunities and seek development in domestic and foreign markets. The internal adjustment, improve the overall level of employees, to learn advanced knowledge of the industry, understand the external market situation, expand the product line, to look for development opportunities in the industry, under the pressure of refined gold.