How the Chinese economy should be taken from China's economy

This fully open two-child policy of so many families bustling, but also a few happy tears. The second child is open, but the economy does, now the children are not enough to eat. It is not so much as a policy aimed at the depression of the real estate stock market, but it is better to be in line with China's national conditions.

The Chinese business newspaper has learned that since 2012, China's labor force has been declining rapidly, and the demographic dividend seems to be shrinking. It is also one of the reasons for the decline in China's economic downturn, according to relevant authorities.

The current changes are reflected in four aspects: labor shortage leads to wage increase and labor productivity growth rate is lower than the growth rate of migrant workers' wages, diminishing returns on capital and negative growth of labor migration.

So, for Chinese, now more urgent problem is the shortage of labor supply, rising corporate labor costs is eroding Chinese manufacturing enterprises profits, resulting in many enterprises or factories from Chinese outage.

Factory relocation, unreasonable wage and labor ratio

The current situation in China is not the macro economic cycle but the economic growth. It is a phased change. Therefore, we can't see the change of the V font, there is no turning point for the recovery. It's the transformation trend of L that the central economic work conference said.

In addition, the Pearl River Delta manufacturing enterprises to report, 3 to 4 of enterprises plan to move their factories out of Chinese mainland, alleviate the wages and labor situation inverse.

A sharp decline in the demographic dividend

Usually, the "demographic dividend" disappears, which refers to the total support in the population cycle and the increase of labor force population has been decreasing year by year, until the total support ratio is over 50%. Of course, the disappearance of the demographic dividend is not a point at a time, but a gradual slow process.

Founder's [1.21% fund research report issued in]1 month, two experts from Yi Fu and Su Jian believe that China's age structure will soon become a highly unstable inverted triangle, which is labor shortage, population aging and loss of vitality. In fact, in recent years, the shortage of migrant workers in China every year, it is clear that there is no surplus labor in the countryside.

The maximization of the population dividend in China was achieved before the upbringing was reduced to the lowest point in 2013 and quickly disappeared after 2013. He believes that China's demographic dividend will not last until 2030, but it has actually already crossed its most abundant harvest period.

What save you, the future of China's economy?

Standard Chartered Bank senior economist Chinese Chinese "color acceptance business" said in an interview with reporters, although the decline in the supply of unskilled labor is China erosion low-end manufacturing sector's competitiveness, but the new demographic dividend model is formed by 2030, an estimated 27% of the working population will have a college degree, close to Germany, France and Britain at present the level of. This new dividend model, based on the quality of labor, will speed up the transformation of China's industrial upgrading to the technology intensive high-end manufacturing industry.

"This will accelerate the transformation of China's industrial upgrading to a technology - intensive high-end manufacturing industry and support economic growth for the next few decades." The color thinks. The key is that the next reform will support the formation of a new demographic dividend model.

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