In the new year, the coal and steel market still has no counterattack.
2015 seems to be not too good for a year, the construction machinery industry has experienced years of baptism, is also gradually improved, but the coal and steel industry seems a little long, the market is still showing the vagaries of the state, the decline intensified.
In the 2016 China economic prediction conference held by the prediction center of Chinese Academy of Sciences, we carried out a summary of the 2015 development of three key industries, including automobile, steel and coal, and the prediction of market trend in 2016.
In 2015, the overall development of China's industrial industry was not very optimistic. Under the influence of slow economic recovery and overcapacity, the fixed investment in industrial industry has fallen sharply, the industrial development is wandering, and the export of industrial enterprises has fallen sharply. Taking automobile, steel and coal industry as an example, this paper analyzes the operation of major industries in 2015, and forecasts the industry trend and important operational indicators in 2016. The growth rate of industrial added value in 2015 is expected to be 6.1%, and industrial growth continues to decline in 2016, about 5.5%.
Automobile industry: in 2015, the growth of China's automobile production and sales growth slowed down, the stock remained high, and the industry was in a downturn. Looking ahead to 2016, China's auto industry is facing many challenges. High inventory is still the main pressure facing the auto market in 2016. The slow growth of automobile production and marketing will become the norm, but the industry stimulus policy will push the industry boom up slightly. In 2015, China's car production and sales were about 24 million 31 thousand and 24 million 314 thousand, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of about 1.3% and 3.5% respectively. In 2016, China's car output was 24 million 872 thousand, up about 3.5% over the same period, and 25 million 676 thousand cars, up 5.6% from the same year. In the future, the central and western regions with low vehicle ownership remain the main source of market growth. New energy and independent brand cars are expected to become the new driving force of the automotive industry. In addition, the auto market, auto finance and other markets will continue to become the hot spot in the market.
Iron and steel industry: in 2015, the operation and prosperity of the steel industry in China is low, and the problems of overcapacity, poor profitability and low efficiency are still serious. Looking forward to 2016, the steel industry boom will continue to maintain a low position. Econometric model prediction shows that the gross steel output in 2015 is about 8.11 billion tons, down by about 2.30% compared with the same period last year, and the output of steel is about 11.27 billion tons, an increase of about 0.90% over the same period last year. In 2016, the output of crude steel was about 7.86 million tons, which was about 3.10% year-on-year, and the output of steel was about 11.11 million tons, down by about 1.50% over the same period. In the future, we should continue to introduce related supporting policies for iron and steel industry in terms of energy saving, emission reduction, intelligent manufacturing and internationalization strategy. Meanwhile, the steel industry itself also needs to improve its market mechanism, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and create an orderly, competitive and benign new industry ecosystem.
Coal industry: in 2015, the overall situation of the coal industry in China was not good, the price of coal continued to fall, and the loss surface of coal enterprises was further expanded. In 2016, with macroeconomic growth continued to slow, continue to promote the adjustment of economic structure, the total energy consumption control, environmental protection requirements continue to increase, the international coal face increasing competition, China's coal industry situation is still grim, coal mining enterprises will face greater risk, the coal industry boom will continue downward trend. Econometric model prediction shows that in 2015, the output of raw coal in China will decrease by about 3% compared with the same period last year, to 37.58 billion tons, and the output of raw coal in 2016 will be 36 million tons, which will be reduced by 4.2% over the same period. In the future, we should further intensify efforts to control excess capacity, actively implement the "clean coal" strategy, promote the efficiency and cleanliness of coal production and consumption, optimize the structure of coal productivity, improve industrial concentration and promote the transformation and upgrading of coal industry.
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