Iron and steel rescue, how to "go to capacity"
The arrival of 2016 to many industries in the winter brings hope, the thought that the steel industry will ease in the environment of the drive, however 2016 has not been able to get rid of the spring chill chilly in iron and steel industry. The excess capacity surplus, disorder of market order, reform competition and clueless poor, making the steel industry to become, like the abyss monster, difficult groping forward.
IOT steel logistics Specialized Committee during the new year's day release of iron and steel industry PMI index, the index in December 2015 was 40.6%, last month rose 3.6 percentage points, from nearly 7 years lows hit in November. It seemed to let people see a glimmer of dawn. In the main sub index, the product inventory index has contracted to the lowest level in nearly 28 months, and the new order index and the new export order index have recovered significantly.
The beauty of a flash in the pan
In 2015 December, the steel industry new orders index after two consecutive months of decline, rebounded sharply by 11.2 percentage points to 40.9%, the highest since May, with the continuous introduction of loose policy results, the current market demand environment has improved, steel orders began to increase, sales pressure is obviously alleviate the early emergence of. Meanwhile, in December, the index of new export orders in the steel industry was 47.8%, up 6.6 percentage points from November, the highest in nearly 4 months, indicating that the recent international steel price has recovered slightly.
From the point of view, the demand of the steel industry is better in some downstream. Among them, with the rapid growth of fiscal expenditure, a large number of local debt replacement and special financial debt, the growth of capital construction investment rose to 18.2% in 1-11 months in 2015. The same in the small displacement car purchase tax reduction policy stimulus, the national car market in November obviously warm, the car production and sales are broken 2 million 500 thousand.
In 2016 January, production and maintenance steel will increase, crude steel production is expected to slightly lower, before the Spring Festival stocking traders will increase, the short-term supply and demand situation will be improved; the recent introduction of a variety of major steel price policy, coupled with the iron ore prices rebound stage, expected steel prices and ore price trend will be relatively strong.
Although car sales have been warmer, the demand for most of the downstream steel industry is still weak. Due to structural surplus property, 1-11 2015 real estate investment growth fell to 1.3%, the leading indicators of real estate new construction area, land acquisition area dropped. At the same time, the growth of shipbuilding, household appliances, traditional machinery and other industries is weak, and it is still in the process of producing capacity. The declining trend of the downstream industry is transmitted to the upstream steel industry, which is the main reason for the decline in the price of steel and the plight of the industry this year.
"This rally was mainly due to increased, limiting the production of steel market resources caused by tight, but from the pull up rate, this time rose too fast, for a larger component of speculation. After the market has gone up, the turnover is insufficient and some varieties have fallen down. Winter is always the off-season demand, the fundamentals is difficult to have a substantive change, no actual demand for support prices at stake. In the New Year approaching, market funds face tight, cheap Paohuo phenomenon or increased. To sum up, this round of price rise is only a flash in the pan. " Liu Chunhong, an iron and steel analyst, said.
Some analysts pointed out that although the iron and steel industry has accelerated signs of capacity growth, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic steel market is still outstanding, and the social inventory continues to decline. Coupled with the industry the lack of funds and cost down, expected short-term domestic steel prices decline is still hard to change.
Must "go to capacity"
When it comes to iron and steel industry, we have to mention overcapacity. Iron and steel capacity is not only the problem of the steel industry itself, but also a complex social problem China is facing now.
After the closing of the central economic work conference pointed out that in 2016 the economic and social development especially the structural reform task is very arduous, the strategy should insist on maintaining stability, a good grasp of the rhythm and intensity, the tactics to seize the key points of main is to pay attention to production, to inventory, leverage and cost reduction, make up the short board five tasks. The production capacity is put in the first place, and it is very serious to see the current capacity situation.
It is understood that the National Conference on industry and information work is expected to eliminate 13 million tons of iron making and 17 million tons of steelmaking in the year. According to the plan of transformation and development of iron and steel industry (2015-2017), which will be released by the Ministry of industry and commerce, we will try to reduce 80 million tons of iron and steel production capacity in three years. After annexation and reorganization, the number of iron and steel enterprises will be controlled at around 300.
At present, there are more than 500 domestic steel production enterprises, of which there are more than 400 private steel enterprises. According to the statistics of the small and medium metallurgical chamber of Commerce, the number of private enterprises in the capacity of 10 million tons or more, 7, 300 to 10 million tons, 43, 1 million to 3 million tons, less than 200, less than 1 million tons or less. So basically, 200 of the steel enterprises that need to be eliminated will be almost all private steel enterprises. In addition, the China Steel Association has also predicted that the new environmental law and their own reasons, "13th Five-Year" during the period of China's private enterprises will be reduced by about 90 million tons of steel production.
In the "13th Five-Year" plan, to resolve the overcapacity will be a focus, but the problem of excess steel capacity in the short term will be difficult to eliminate. The heavy overcapacity in the iron and steel industry is already a reality, and the most important thing is how to minimize the excess capacity loss.
In this regard, Liu Weimin said, the excess capacity to reduce the loss to the lowest, Duocuobingju need multi force. First of all, we should speed up the elimination of backward production capacity and reduce the backward capacity stocks through a series of measures, such as industry standards, hydropower prices, environmental threshold, tax and so on, and avoid backward production capacity to avoid elimination through simple expansion. Secondly, increase the intensity of merger and reorganization, improve the industrial concentration, and scientifically determine the new productivity. In addition, it can also be combined with "The Belt and Road" strategy, through capital ties and trade ties, in the broader market in digestive capacity. By opening up the market of these countries, we can not only digest these capacity, but also strive for the time of industry transformation and upgrading.
As a result of the excess capacity industry, enterprises are generally the local pillar industries, involving a large number of government tax and personnel employment and other stability problems. Therefore, in addition to reducing the excess capacity loss to the minimum, it is also necessary to establish an effective exit mechanism.
Deputy Secretary General of the association Chi Jingdong think, should establish effective exit mechanism, exit channel, to help enterprises solve some exit and because the capacity of personnel placement, tax and other issues, to avoid causing problems because of local stability of historical issues, and more importantly, should resolve the overcapacity at the same time, looking for and the establishment of a new industrial growth point, and through a series of policies to encourage and help the local economy transition, which is the focus of the reform of the supply side.
Survival of the fittest
Hu Yanping, a senior analyst, pointed out that the serious overcapacity in iron and steel industry needs to be eliminated by market mechanism. However, because many iron and steel enterprises are important sources of local employment and taxes, local governments often give them as much support as possible. The iron and steel industry is a passive and difficult process to produce capacity. The local government, in its own interest, may delay the process of the iron and steel industry.
Zombie companies do not want to exit is mainly because the production of iron and steel industry belongs to the capital of high density, high fixed costs, once the exit for enterprises, most of the costs to be losing, which leads to some enterprises prefer to maintain; "boring furnace" status or idle capacity is not willing to completely withdraw from the state. In addition, some enterprises have been the main tax sources of local government, and some local governments maintain the inefficient operation state by coordinating the related resources. Liu Ying, director of the cooperation research department of the Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute, said.
In fact, in the iron and steel industry, there are indeed some enterprises own serious losses, hematopoietic capacity has been lost, relying on local governments at all levels of fiscal subsidies and preferential policies to barely survive. These enterprises have low economic benefits, which indirectly leads to the flow of resources to higher income enterprises, which destroys the market competition mechanism of the whole industry, exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand of the market, lowers the sales price of the industry, and damages the interests of the advantageous enterprises.
Feng Fei, Vice Minister of China's Ministry of industry and information technology, recently pointed out that the traditional industry transformation and upgrading plan is being formulated. The iron and steel industry is an absolute surplus industry, and the ability to quit is to speed up the "market clearing".
Feng Fei believes that the "zombie enterprise" refers to a company that has long lost and hopeless but is difficult to quit smoothly. Outstanding feature of "zombie" companies is low competitiveness, because both the technology of outdated equipment, there are backward management, heavy debt, social burden and other reasons; outstanding characteristics of backward production capacity is a serious environmental pollution, waste of resources, low quality and no guarantee of the safety in production. Backward production capacity and "zombie enterprises" are all allocation of resources in inefficient sectors, which should be withdrawn from the market.
From now on, to solve the problem of "zombie enterprise" exit, it is imperative to study and formulate a comprehensive supporting policy system according to the main body of enterprises, government promotion, market guidance and disposal according to law.
The central economic work conference stressed: "to create conditions for the implementation of the market-oriented bankruptcy proceedings in accordance with the law, and to speed up the trial of bankruptcy liquidation cases. To put forward and implement fiscal and tax support, disposal of non-performing assets, unemployment re employment and living security, and special reward and other policies, capital market should cooperate with enterprise annexation and reorganization. As much as possible, we should merge and reorganize as much as possible, less bankruptcy and liquidation, and do a good job of employee resettlement. " This indicates the direction of the clearing of the iron and steel industry and dissolving the surplus.
Relevant recommendations:
The high speed railway in Yunnan is open and the world is no longer closed
Focus on the mountain: "go to 2016 by dream and dream"
