It is still difficult for China's machinery industry to return to normal track in 2014

In recent years, the development of many industries are stalled, and the development of the machinery industry is also facing great impact. Now the machinery industry overcapacity, sluggish development. But that's only the surface. The more essential reason is that China's economic development stage has undergone profound changes, but the industry development model can not change with it. The industry is facing transformation and upgrading.

Forecast the growth of machinery industry in 2014

From the China Machinery Industry Federation (CMIF) was informed that the 2014 machinery industry production and sales growth rate will be at 10%-15%, the profit growth is expected at around 10%. Market participants believe that in 2014 the industry will still be dominated by structural investment opportunities.

CMIF person said, "in 12th Five-Year" since, the difficulties in the operation of machinery industry increased significantly, change the mode of growth pressure increased sharply in 2013, but still a lot of difficulties; forced in the role of the market mechanism, the industry structure adjustment and transformation and upgrading is accelerating; through the efforts, 2013 machinery industry to achieve slow recovery, moderate growth in peace steady development; in 2014, the industry is expected to continue to maintain steady development trend.

2014 machinery industry returned to normal "pressure mountain""

The source said that from the economic growth cycle, in recent years China's "inventory" has obvious progress, but to capacity, to bubble "task is far from complete, and return to normal development there are still a lot of pressure. From this point of view, the expectation of economic growth is not high now."

CMIF forecast of machinery industry in 2014 is expected to continue to maintain a relatively stable growth, expected sales growth rate is between 10%-15%, the profit growth of around 10%, export growth is estimated at between 5%-10%. Specific to the industry, the machine together is to determine the industry in 2014 the conventional power generation equipment and power transmission equipment, metallurgical and mining equipment, heavy machinery, general machine tools will continue to demand in the doldrums; high-end machine tools, robots and automatic production line demand will rise; construction machinery market will rebound, by car and return to normal gradually change radically; agricultural production and sales growth will gradually decline, but large high-end agricultural products market will still be more prosperous.

Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of affecting the development of machinery industry

Favorable factors: the financial costs and interest rates increased significantly, the enterprise's macro environment has improved, which is conducive to enterprises to control the financial costs. Accounts receivable increase was greater than the same period of sales growth, but has ended up stabilization. This shows that the payment is still difficult, but the risk of excessive growth is under control. Inventory growth is less than the same period of production and sales growth, has dropped to a low level, indicating that "destocking" has achieved significant results. This creates the condition for the prosperity of machinery industry in the future.

Unfavorable factors: domestic demand is still insufficient. This year's product price index has been sluggish. In January ~10, the accumulative orders of the key enterprises increased, but the growth rate was only 8.58%, indicating that the domestic market rebounded. The export situation is not optimistic, the overall situation is still weak, in January ~10 months total export growth of only 4.62%. The investment effect of the heavy industry, engineering, machine tools and other will still face the market demand situation, rely more on the automotive industry growth pattern has not changed.

It is expected that in 2014, the conventional power generation equipment, machinery industry, metallurgical and mining equipment, heavy machinery, general machine tools and other sub sectors will continue to demand in the doldrums; high-end machine tools, robots and automatic production line demand will rise; construction machinery market will rebound, by car and return to normal gradually change radically; agricultural production and sales growth will gradually decline but the product market, high-end large-scale agricultural will be more prosperous. Faced with the plight of enterprise development, we should actively seek solutions. Adapt to the needs of the market, and constantly improve their own development.