Transition period of industrial new and old kinetic energy
The industrial economy occupies a very important share in the economy, the rapid development of the service industry even in the case of industrial added value accounted for the proportion of GDP is still above 30%, attention should be paid to the growth rate of industrial added value, especially above scale industrial trend, which have great impact on the economic growth generated. From the perspective of industrial economy in 2015, the growth rate is relatively low, but relatively stable. The trend of GDP is relatively stable. It can be said that for a long time, the trend of industrial economic growth is almost the same as that of GDP, which also reflects the impact on the trend of the whole national economy.
First of all, from the point of view of the growth of industrial value added, if it is summed up in a word, it is the growth rate from falling to stability. Under the impact of the international financial crisis in 2009, industrial growth slowed down, and the country took a stimulus policy, and the growth of industry increased. However, since 2011, industrial growth has fallen again for five consecutive years, from 15.7% in 2010 to 6% in 2015, and the decline is very obvious.
Secondly, from the change of the industrial producer price, it can be summed up as the change of the factory producer's price and the purchase price, which is the decrease of the price month by month.
From the beginning of 2012 March, industrial producer prices fell, and has been in a downward trend, appear flat trend from December to 2015 in August, indicating that prices have stabilized in the. And the purchase price has been decreasing from April 2012 to the present. It has been decreasing for 50 months, and its trend is similar to the producer price of industrial producer. But after entering January this year, the decline has also been narrowing, from 6.8% in December 2015 to 3.8% this year. The two cuts have been narrowed down because of demand volatility and the impact of large and medium commodity prices in the world.
The three trends are closely related to the import price of goods trade, the purchase price of the industrial producers and the price of the factory. Especially in the international financial crisis the most serious, trade in goods import prices have dropped 18.6%, the purchase price and producer price are also negative growth, when economic recovery, import prices of goods are rising rapidly, especially the trade in goods import prices rose to 18.7% in the two quarter of 2010, a very large fluctuation. In 2012, three at the same time entered the negative growth, especially last year, the import price of goods trade fell relatively large, up to 13.2%. It was narrowed up by 2015.
Second, from the change of profit, it can also be summed up as industrial profit from decline to growth. The total industrial profits above the scale in the first 5 months of 2016 reversed the decline in 2015, and the total industrial profits above the scale of 1~5 month increased by 6.4%.
So what are the factors causing the total profit scale by 2015 dropped to growth this year? I think there are several factors: one is the industrial product sales growth accelerated, 5 months before this year, above scale industrial enterprises the main business revenue growth of 2.9%; two is the product price decline narrowed three is reduced; cost and cost reduction effect more apparent; four is in line with the direction of the transformation and upgrading of the industry rapid profit growth.
On this basis, the new kinetic energy of China's industry is accumulating, the high technology manufacturing industry is growing rapidly, and the new products are also growing rapidly. First, the industrial production structure continues to improve, and the two is that the investment in the high-tech manufacturing industry has increased by 13.1%, which is 8.5 percentage points higher than the growth of all manufacturing investment.
There are supply side structural reform effectiveness previews. In terms of capacity, the output of the overcapacity industry has fallen. In the area of stock removal, the stock of industrial enterprises has changed actively. In the area of deleveraging, the assets and liabilities of industrial enterprises have declined. In terms of cost reduction, the cost of the main business income of industrial enterprises has been reduced.
However, there are still outstanding problems in the industrial economy. The first aspect is the shortage of demand and the difficulty of stable export growth. World trade continues to slump, uncertain factors increase, and macroeconomic policies of main economies continue to differentiate. The pace and intensity of US dollar interest rate increase is still an important factor in the change of international capital flows and exchange rates, which will bring challenges to the stability and internationalization of RMB exchange rate.
The second aspect is the decline in demand for inventory change, which will have a negative impact on demand in the short term. In addition to overcapacity, the utilization of industry is lower than normal, resulting in lower productivity in excess capacity industry.
The third aspect is that the differentiation of the regional industry is obvious, and the new and old kinetic energy conversion is facing the challenge.
Overall, I am optimistic about the China economy including industrial economy, especially in the industrial economy stable, prices gradually rise, profits from growth to decline. Though it is more difficult now, once the new kinetic energy, new economy, strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries and so on, a series of new kinetic energy can counteract the traditional downward pressure, then there will be room for recovery.
