The survival of the industry: the poor are changed, change the pass
In fact, there is no backward industry or the setting sun industry, more importantly, it depends on how you do it. No matter which industry, quality and innovation are always the scarce goods on the market.
There is a line saying that there is no sunset industry, only sunset products. "On the one hand, the domestic steel industry has overcapacity on the one hand; on the other hand, the quality of the products is still hard, and the high end steel still needs a large amount of imports." Li Keqiang's review in May was the crux of the industry's embarrassment. In any industry, quality and innovation are always scarce in the market.
The winter under pressure, past the impression "uneducated" of the steel industry also began to focus on "small is beautiful" in the high-end market, Nangang group is one of them.
In recent years, the group began to find out the most advanced concept of "industrial 4" in the industry, and introduced intelligent manufacturing on the traditional strong board.
"We are not in fashion to do intelligent manufacturing, blindly invest a lot of money, but can not play a role in the growth of enterprise value, which is very dangerous." Nangang Group Chairman Huang Yixin revealed the innovation logic, "we more than a year after the test, found here can create differentiated value."
The difference is one of the most mentioned words by Huang Yixin. He pointed out that the current excess capacity is because in the past, "iron and steel 11th Five-Year and 12th Five-Year" plans were all wrong, and industrial orientation was driven in one direction, which led to serious competition in product homogenization. So the dragons "in 13th Five-Year to avoid planning into the trap, must make its own differential planning."
In 2014, Nanjing began pilot production scheduling and implementation of intelligent logistics distribution. It is understood that the quantity of materials used in ship intelligent cruise customized distribution services can be reduced by 20% per ship, to enhance the efficiency of 1/3. Last year, a total of 400 thousand tons of Nangang test, and formed a "4 industrial prototype", the next step will be to expand to include intelligent manufacturing production, the whole industry chain.
In addition to the whole process of intelligent custom distribution board, Nangang product planning and the rising star special steel products.
Ten years ago, the printing press plate is Nangang, per ton of profitable. Strategic positioning is to create Nangang plate boutique base of the world. But Huang Yixin realized that only a single product was not enough and needed to be supported at two points. He chose the road to special steel.
"Now it seems that the road of special steel is right." At that time, Huang Yixin was looking for the trend of overseas high-end manufacturing to transfer to the country in recent years. The development of automobile, mechanical engineering, special equipment and other industries in China will be an important support for the development of special steel.
"12th Five-Year" period, Nangang costly to build special steel production line, formed a special pipeline steel, advanced ship and marine engineering steel, oil tank multi product system as the leading steel high-grade wide special steel plate. Today, special steel products account for half of the company's annual output, and will become a new profit growth point in the future.
Throughout the steel industry, special steel products representing high quality and new technology have increased in the "freezing period" of the industry last year. Statistics from China Iron and Steel Industry Association show that 8 of the top 20 enterprises in the industry sector in 2015 were special steel enterprises. Among them, CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group ranked the first.
The performance of high quality steel enterprises confirms Huang Yixin's saying, "no matter how to transform and upgrade, how to adjust the structure, manufacturing, especially high-end manufacturing, is the foundation of a nation's survival and the fundamental embodiment of comprehensive national strength. In fact, there is no backward industry or the setting sun industry, more importantly, it depends on how you do it. "
The breakthrough of reform: decode the prisoner's dilemma
To go to capacity is not to go to steel, and the reduction of development is not a development. The iron and steel industry should take the opportunity of this reform to remould the value chain of the iron and steel industry and improve its competitiveness in an all-round way with the reduction as the core.
From last year to the present, the steel industry has fallen into a "capacity - to - capacity anxiety". The first quarter of this year, steel prices skyrocketing atmosphere led a group of steel enterprises to resume production, Jianlong steel (formerly Haixin iron and steel) as the representative of a group size of heavy steel blast furnace, the production capacity and inventory and gradually into the high. In April, the average daily output of crude steel was 2 million 314 thousand tons, creating a new high. At a time, the road to steel production is more difficult and longer.
From the perspective of marketization to capacity, the consensus reached by many journalists is that enterprises can achieve capacity only if they really lose money for a long time. Insiders pointed out that, according to experience, when steel prices in 2 to 3 months 200 to 300 yuan per ton loss under the condition of blast furnace can be shut down. And in the first half of the warm market to some extent delayed the enterprise to eliminate the initiative to eliminate production capacity, the process of withdrawal from the market.
In fact, iron and steel production capacity to heavy resistance reflects the economics of well-known "prisoner's dilemma" theory: although almost all steel enterprises understand that only go to production capacity in order to save the industry, but many enterprises hope someone else first cut, you are to stick to that one last. This is a reflection of the best choice of the individual, which is sometimes not the best choice for the group.
In this case, in the hands of the government leading becomes the key to resolve the overcapacity pressure to cut energy and improve the exit mechanism, which involves personnel placement, debt restructuring and other multi problems. Since the beginning of the year, many documents and supporting policies have been issued at the national level, and the provinces have actively reported the capacity plan, but the actual effect is still to be observed.
"Although the government and enterprises to capacity determination are great, but the exit mechanism and government support policies are not in place, still need a period of time from the implementation of the promulgation of the document to." Li Xinchuang, President of the Institute of metallurgical industry planning and research, said.
In May 10th, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Regulations on the management of special compensation for industrial restructuring", set up a 100 billion yuan scale special fund for the central special award to support local and central enterprises in solving the problem of excess capacity in the steel and coal industry. According to the Ministry of Finance (Ministry of Finance) in May 19th, it has allocated 27 billion 643 million yuan for the special award of the 2016 industrial enterprise structure adjustment award.
At present, the way of capacity withdrawal with the hands of the government and the market is initially clear. Li Xinchuang said that the first thing is to clean up backward production capacity according to regulations, eliminate a batch of irregular production capacity through environmental protection standards and so on. Secondly, on the basis of voluntary businesses, a long-term loss of zombie enterprises is gradually phasing out.
One thing that needs to be clear is, "to go to capacity is not to go to steel, and the reduction of development is not undeveloped." He believes that the iron and steel industry should take the opportunity of this reform to remould the value chain of the iron and steel industry at the core and improve its competitiveness in an all-round way.
Wu Libo, deputy director of the energy economics and Strategy Research Center of Fudan University, thinks that the reason of Chinese overcapacity is similar to that of the US.
"From the perspective of macro economy, there are three similarities between the reasons for the overcapacity between China and the United States. In the first place, China, like that of the United States, was a huge creditor country, and the debtor country was in a downturn. Secondly, the real economic growth of the stock market fluctuation is slow. The third is the decline in exports, the slowdown in the economic growth of the major trading partners and the decline in import demand, leading to a slowdown in China's export demand. " Wu Libo pointed out that the biggest difference between China and the US in overcapacity is that there are considerable structural factors in the cause of overcapacity in China, which is why China's supply side reform should emphasize structural aspects.
On structural problems, Wu Libo put forward the overall supply side economies reform: one is to effectively resolve the shrinking external demand and domestic demand caused by insufficient overcapacity; two to reduce the corporate tax cost to increase income; the three is a large amount of infrastructure to improve economic stimulus policies precipitated output efficiency; the four is to guide the financial market the bubble burst after the effective investment spillover of social capital, improve the efficiency of assets, so that investors bear the true cost of investment, economic cost and corresponding social cost.
Obviously, this is not a simple capacity to "battle", but a breakthrough to the prisoner's dilemma, the supply side reforms structural crush ulcer "protracted war".
China's iron and steel industry has a long way to go to production capacity
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