Look at the Chinese economy today

In 2015 Chinese, unabashedly said, is an experienced an eventful year, the environmental impact of the economic downturn, the steel industry has become the most beautiful unable to get up after a fall in oil prices down, the construction machinery full of mystery lies. All of it, how many domestic policies do not make it possible to change his situation.

According to the analysis of national related data, the annual GDP growth of China in 2015 was 6.9%, which was 7% for the first time since 1990. The slowdown in China's economic growth has aroused many concerns in the world. Many foreign investment banks pay close attention to China's economic development and forecast the growth of China's economic growth in the past 16 years.

In addition, Song Yu, the chief Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that China's economic growth in 2016 is 6.4%, and wages, employment and consumption may be affected. He was the best in the Bloomberg rankings about China's overall economic forecast over the past two years.

At the same time, he does not hold a negative view of China's economic prospects and does not agree with the prediction of the Chinese economy's imminent collapse. "They could have done more, but they didn't do it, and that's important. They kept ammunition, and they wanted to leave some ammunition to protect themselves from the extreme tail risk. "

Moodie expects China's economic growth rate to be 6.3% in 2016. Moodie said that since China's economic growth will continue to slow down, and the central government's reform measures aimed at improving financial transparency will bring further challenges to local governments, the prospect of China's local governments in 2016 is negative.

In addition, Song Yu predicted that the RMB exchange rate against the dollar would fall to 7.3 by the end of 72017 by the end of this year. "We think that 10% or a little more devaluation will be enough to make the exchange rate reach a point that is not far away from the equilibrium level."

The turnaround suggests that more monetary policy relaxation and fiscal stimulus may be needed in 16 years, the risk that will affect the process of orderly deleveraging. At the same time, the other main negative factor is the uncertainty caused by complex local government or debt situation. At present, the pressure of local infrastructure investment and financing still needs to be borne by the local government financing platform, which may lead to the rise of local government or debt.

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